This is a question we hear regularly – whether from new graduates or experienced professionals. Some people resort to anecdotal evidence, or their local crystal ball, but we fall back on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Labour Force Survey and predictions from the Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business (DESSFB).
Each year, the DESSFB produces employment projections by industry, occupation, skill level and region for the following five years. These are designed to provide a guide to the future direction of the labour market. Like many surveys and predictions there is an inherent degree of uncertainty, but they do provide a data based platform for decisions, rather than just gut feel.
Top four by 2023
According to DESSFB, over the next five years (to 2023) the top four industries for job growth will be:
- Health Care and Social Assistance
- Construction
- Education and Training
- Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
They predict that almost 2 in every 3 new jobs created will come from these four industries. According to DESSFB labour market analyst, Ivan Neville:
‘We are seeing the strongest employment growth in quite traditional service roles – in particular, there’s strong demand for carers across the board.’
The specific roles expected to have the most growth and demand over the coming five years include:
- Aged and Disabled Carers
- Registered Nurses
- Child Carers
- Software and Applications Programmers
- Waiters
- Education Aides
Industries in decline by 2023
In comparison, there are a number of industries predicted to go into decline during the next 5 years including:
- Machinery and Equipment Wholesaling
- Printing
- Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
- Some Manufacturing Subsectors
The decline in the above industries will drive a corresponding decline in the job outlook for these industries. Clerical and Administrative Workers is the only occupation group where employment is projected to decline across the whole industry. The chart below shows the five occupation subgroups in which employment is projected to fall over the five years to May 2023.
However, if you are looking to be part of one of the growth industries or jobs, or find yourself looking down the barrel of an occupation in decline, now is the time to start adapting for the future. Even if you feel secure in your current role, don’t wait to find you’ve missed the boat and the employment market has moved on without you.